Reconstruction of the past global-climate changes and prediction of the future such changes will be presented and discussed here.

Long term reconstruction and forecasting of the cosmic activity in Solar System between 15 kyr B.C. and 2500 A.D. There are considered the cosmic periods of the following levels of the Cosmic Hierarchy: 2. Local Group of Stars; 3. Orion-Minigalaxy; 4. Milky Way; 5. Large Magellanic Cloud and the period of the Sun`s Dark Companion.
The averaged cosmic activity of the previous diagram showing the dates of the maxima of the cosmic quantum jumps of the level 5, 4, and 3.
Two recent maxima of the previous curve responsible for the Medieval Climatic Optimum (around 790) and the Present Climatic Optimum (around 1908) separated with the recent minimum of the Little Ice Age with its coldest time around 1385
Reconstruction and prognosis of the cosmic activity in Solar System during the “modern times” between the years 1850 and 2050. Let us note that the part of this curve from 1860 to 1990 was the traditionally used climatic change in order to expand the hypothesis of the catastrophic climate warming the Earth should be standing immediately before.
Reconstruction and prognosis of the cosmic activity in Solar System during the 36 solar cycles (from 0 to 36) between the years 1752 and 2142

Reconstruction of the thousand years (996-1995) of the cosmic activity in Solar System during the 90 solar cycles (from -70 to 20)

2 thoughts on “Global climate forecast

  • November 7, 2011 at 19:24
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    Cosmoclimatology is on the right way

    One of the research divisions at the National Space Institute of the Technical University of Denmark is the Center for Sun-Climate Research.

    On the homepage of this Center we read about the basic ideas of the cosmoclimatology as follows.
    (Cosmoclimatology is the term coined for this research, involving a range of disciplines from space physics to atmospheric science to cloud microphysics.)

    “The National Space Institute (NSI) comprises the country’s largest collected expertise in the scientific disciplines that play a major and documented role in the understanding of climate change both in geological and historical time, namely variations in solar activity. The NSI regards it as essential that this collected expertise is being used in an attempt to understand the natural causes of climate change in order to evaluate the contribution of natural causes to global change.

    The NSI is basing its effort in this area on its own scientific results – observational, experimental, and theoretical. The scientific results have been published internationally and indicate that the varying activity of the Sun is indeed the largest and most systematic contributor to natural climate variations.

    The significant contribution from solar activity variations to global temperature increase does not, however, exclude other contributions to the rising global temperature, natural as well as human. However, taking into account the large uncertainty associated with the estimated human contribution, a good research-based estimate of the range of natural climate variations is an essential information. The NSI is focused on establishing the best possible and scientifically based evaluation of the size of solar induced effects on climate.

    In 1996 a surprising discovery was announced that the intensity of cosmic rays incident on the earth’s atmosphere correlates closely with variations of global cloud cover [Henrik Svensmark and Eigil FriisChristensen 1996]. Clouds both reflect incoming and trap outgoing radiation, and they thus play an important role in the Earth’s radiation budget.

    The hypothesis is that solar variability is linked to climate variability by a chain that involves the solar wind, cosmic rays and clouds. The weak link is the connection between cosmic rays and clouds. Recent work has directed attention to a mechanism involving aerosol production and the affects on low clouds. This idea suggests that ions and radicals produced in the atmosphere by cosmic rays could influence aerosol production and thereby cloud properties.”

    My introductory commentary regards the marked sentences of the above information.

    Firstly, “… the varying activity of the Sun is indeed the largest and most systematic contributor to natural climate variations.”
    I would expand this statement: The varying activity of the Sun is a large part of the varying cosmic activity of the Sun`s Cosmic Hierarchy. The varying cosmic activity of this hierarchy is indeed the largest and most systematic contributor to natural climate variations.

    Secondly, “…a good research-based estimate of the range of natural climate variations is an essential information.”
    I completely agree with it. I have just researched some level deeper into the cosmic space.

    Finally, “…a chain that involves the solar wind, cosmic rays and clouds. The weak link is the connection between cosmic rays and clouds”.
    It is still a really weak link, despite all the research by Henrik Svensmark and his group. I would like to have a possibility to explain to them why I think so. I have just written an e-mail to Prof. Svensmark.

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  • November 3, 2011 at 00:09
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    Dear Professor Laszlo,

    here is the second remark to your April-Interview by worldshiftmovement (in Toscany).
    Don`t worry about the “additional” (as you call it) source of the nuclear energy warming the Earth`s atmosphere. In less than ten years we will be looking for every possibility to warm it. We will even go all together to live in the great cities (like the Emperor penguins in their colonies).

    After 2015 we will be surprised, where is all the global warming gone lost. And after 2023 it will be a really serious problem to keep the people away from moving into the equatorial zone of the continents.

    The above presented model forecasting the future changes in our global climate is very realistic. We can check it already in few weeks, when the really strong winter between mid December 2011 and March 2012 in the northern hemisphere will be accompanied with rather cold summer in the southern hemisphere.

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